ABP News-CVoter third opinion poll predicts victory of BJP in four states with AAP in the lead in Punjab

Noida: The ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) November 2021 opinion poll predicts a narrow win for the BJP in UP, Uttarakhand and Goa, with its seat share falling precariously close to the majority mark in UP and Uttarakhand. Punjab and Manipur remain too close to call for any party, with AAP and BJP leading in Punjab and Manipur respectively.

 

As per the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, the predictions are as follows:
 
Uttar Pradesh: BJP is retaining the state with 40.4% vote share (212 -224 seats), followed by Samajwadi Party with 33.6% vote share (151 to 163 Seats). BSP is third with 13.2 % vote share (12 to 24 seats).
 
Punjab:  Aam Admi Party is in the leading position with 38.4 % vote share (50 to 56 seats), whereas INC is second with 34.1% vote share (39 to 45 seats). Shiromani Akali Dal is third with 20.4 % vote share (17 to 23 seats).
 
Uttarakhand:  BJP is consistently maintaining its lead position with 33-39 seats. INC is a close second with 29-35 seats, followed by AAP in a distant third with 1-3 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP is leading the way with 39.8% votes, followed by INC with 35.7% votes and AAP with 12.6% vote share.
 
Manipur: BJP is set to win a closely fought contest with INC in the state. The party is winning 29-33 seats while INC is winning 23-27 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP is winning 37.9% votes followed by INC with 34.3% votes.  
 
 
Goa: BJP continues to remain the most popular party as it is winning 17-21 seats. AAP AND INC are in tight battle for second largest party with AAP winning 5-9 seats and INC winning 4- 8 seats. Other regional parties and new entrants in Goa’s politics are also going to be a major factor with these winning parties with 6-7 votes. BJP is leading with 30 % vote, followed by AAP and INC with 24.4 % and 19.7% respectively.
 
The Current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from 13th November to 9th December 2021, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ across 5 states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa) and was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.